Blog 19_Fire and Fossil Fuel

One correspondent expresses surprise at my opinion that the transition to net zero worldwide could take as long as 100 years (See Blog No 11). To see why I believe that to be true, consider everything we have in this world, and I mean everything:

Every road, every bridge, every factory, every hospital, every school, every stadium, every home and apartment, theatre, cinema, every office block, all of transportation including aviation and shipping, Electricity, piped water and sewage, all of mining, domestic appliances, modern medicine and agriculture, TV and Radio, Publishing, Telecommunications, The Internet and all of IT, everything else you can think of, in fact our entire civilisation, was built on two things: Fire and Fossil Fuel. We need to convert all of the above to net zero energy but it will not be easy or fast.

There is no fire on any other planet in the Solar System and, for that matter, there is no fire on the sun. The earth is the only planet in the Solar System which has fire and every day, billions of fires take place here. Think of all the internal combustion engines for a start. Fire is only possible here, because the oxygen concentration in the athmosphere is in a very narrow range. If it were substantially lower, then open fires would not be possible - a fire once lit would immediately go out. If the concentration were substantially higher, then the whole world could burn.

I have argued elsewhere that the difference between fossil machines and net zero machines is that the net zero machines - electric cars, heat pumps, wind turbines, etc. - are all solids and solids must be mined. I believe the transition will take 100 years because we cannot do all the mining of metals and minerals that would be required to make the net zero machines by 2050 or any time even close to then.

Take one metal everybody is familiar with: copper. Copper will often be found in use for water pipes or for the hot press cylinder in a home. It is important because there is no substitute for copper in the Periodic Table, for the manufacture of the net zero machines. You can't say, "we don't have enough copper, we'll use zinc instead". Copper has the highest conductivity by far, apart from the precious metals. Copper must be used for all the windings in the electric motors of the cars, for the heat pumps, for the wind turbines and even for connecting solar panels.

The situation re copper is that the price is close to historical highs and the present demand can be met. However, to complete the net zero transition, vast amounts of extra copper will be needed. It is unclear if the mining companies are even looking for all the new mines that must be discovered and exploited to supply a forthcoming exponential increase in demand.

We know a lot about mining. It is the world's oldest industry. Humans have been doing it for 50,000 years. The Romans were mining coal in Britain when they were there. From the moment prospecting starts, it can take up to 20 years before the first kg of metal can be produced from a new mine.

The sheer volume of the mining required will, I suspect, slow the completion of the worldwide net zero transition until well into the 22nd century.