Blog 24_ Carbon Copy

"We should use Direct Air Capture techniques to remove all carbon dioxide from the athmosphere and solve the climate crisis", proposes one correspondent. That would not be a good idea.

Direct air capture is a new and developing technology which can remove carbon dioxide from the air. At present it is very energy intensive and for that to change will require a number of research breakthroughs. It is sure to have a role in the future but it is not a silver bullet.

Carbon dioxide (CO2) and Methane (CH4) are the two greenhouse gases typically discussed. CO2 causes around 25% of global warming and CH4 causes 10%. You might be wondering what makes up the remaining 65%? There are some trace elements of other gases involved, but the biggest greenhouse gas of all is water vapour. Why we don't start by eliminating that?

Attempting to remove water vapour from the athmosphere isn't a practical or effective solution. Water vapour is part of the Earth's natural water cycle, moving between the oceans,athmosphere and land through processes like evaporation, condensation and precipitation. Removing water vapour would disrupt these cycles, potentially causing severe consequences for ecosystems, agriculture and weather patterns. Furthermore, water vapour has a very short residence time in the athmosphere - only a few days or weeks.It condenses to clouds and falls as rain, naturally regulating its levels.

If all CO2 were removed from the athmosphere, it would have catastrophic consequences for the planet and all life forms. Plant life requires CO2 for photosynthesis. Without CO2, all plant life would die, leading to the collapse of ecosystems dependent on them. As plants died, oxygen production would cease, endangering all oxygen breathing organisms and leading to mass extinctions.The Earth's average temperature would drop significantly from 15 degrees C today, to around minus 18 degrees C. CO2 is vital for maintaining Earth's climate and supporting life. Its complete removal would render the planet lifeless and frozen.

Prior to the Industrial Revolution CO2 levels in the athmosphere were approximately 280 parts per million (PPM). As of 2024, these levels have risen to 424 PPM which is a more than 50% increase. We need to reduce CO2 levels, not eliminate them.

Blog 23_ Going Nuclear

"Let's just accelerate the decarbonisation of the electricity grid by replacing our fossil powered generating stations with some nuclear powered ones", says one critic. Maybe not.

In order to do that, we would firstly have to change the law. Generation of electricity by Nuclear fission is prohibited by the Electricity Regulation act of 1999 (Section 18).

Nuclear power does offer reliable, low carbon, generation of electricity ok, but it comes with a number of downsides:

- Nuclear plants are costly to build and can easily take 10 years to complete. Hinkley Point C in Wales consists of two 1630MW units. Construction started in March 2017 with the first unit scheduled to go live in 2029-2031. The projected cost is £15 billion at 2024 prices.

- The plants would produce radio-active waste which remains dangerous for hundreds of years. Properly storing and managing this waste is expensive and challenging.

- There is always the risk of a nuclear accident. Chernobyl (1986) and Fukushima (2011) come to mind. As well as a loss of life and indeed serious health impacts, accidents can also cause long term environmental damage. There is still a 30km exclusion zone around the Chernobyl plant nearly 40 years later.

- They bring security concerns as any nuclear installation is a potential target for terrorists.

A new design of nuclear plant termed Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) is on the horizon. As the name implies, these are smaller and more flexible nuclear units. On paper at least, they offer several advantages over the traditional large-scale reactors: enhanced safety features, reduced risk of accidents, less costly and faster to construct.

Two big disadvantages however - they still produce radioactive waste which has to be stored and managed and there are so few in service currently. It will take a minimum of ten to fifteen years of practical experience to verify whether SMRs have lived up to their promise. Hence I would say they are not relevant at present.

The above plants are examples of nuclear fission where a heavy atomic nucleus (eg uranium 235) is split into two smaller nuclei releasing energy in the process.

Nuclear fusion on the other hand is where two light atomic nuclei are combined to form a heavier nucleus, releasing energy. This is the type of nuclear energy that powers the sun and is the "holy grail" of electricity generation because it produces no long term waste. Lots of research effort is being devoted to this at present but several breakthroughs are needed before any practical implementations are possible.

From where we are now, the path to decarbonisation of the electricity network in Ireland should be built on wind and solar, combined with sufficient short and long term storage, and backed up by Fast start-up Gas plants (replacing legacy fossil generators) burning biomethane/green hydrogen, together with an expanded set of International Interconnects.

Blog 22_ League Tables

There are some league tables you want to be near the top of. For example, if you are a GAA fan, you want to see your county team near the top of the Allianz League Division 1. Similarly, if a soccer fan, seeing the team you support near the top of the Premier League is desirable. Ditto for rugby and other sports.

Recently, in a league table for most congested city in Europe, Dublin took the bronze medal position behind London and Paris. That is one league table you don't want to be near the top of. Letter writers to the media have had a field day, congratulating Dublin City Council on their "success" in blocking off roads, changing traffic light sequencing, inserting unused cycle lanes etc., in order to create semi-permanent traffic jams.

Another league table Ireland is close to the top of is easiest western country in which to get a passport. Currently, those residing here legally , perhaps work permit holders, can apply for an Irish passport after 5 years. For successful asylum applicants, the residency requirements are even less.

An irish passport enables holders to travel, live and work in all EU countries and in the UK. It is one of the most powerful and accepted passports in the world. So much so that, in intelligence circles, it is widely acknowledged that both the CIA and Mossad have used fake Irish passports on missions in the past. Oliver North used fake Irish documents to enter Teheran in 1980 during the Iran-Contra affair.

Perhaps it would be ok to slip a few places down the passport list? Let's make that 10 years minimum residency for all new applicants, similar to the rules obtaining in Italy and Spain. We want new citizens to integrate into our society and become "more Irish than the Irish themselves". What about adding a citizenship test as well to ensure a basic working knowledge of English or Irish, together with an understanding of our culture, our politics and our democratic values?

Blog 21_ Waiting Patiently

"I have a relative languishing on a hospital waiting list for hip surgery", says one voter. "I'm pleased to see you stress the importance of speeding up delivery of the Elective Hospitals, but how long will that take and how much will they cost?"

I understand the frustration - into the eighth year since they were agreed on by all parties and very little progress. The questioner is right to enquire about the timeline, but also about the cost, given how bad the state has become recently at delivery and cost management of big projects.

Other big projects underway wouldn't inspire confidence.

The proposal to pipe water from the Shannon at Parteen basin up to Peamount in Dublin was originally estimated to cost between EUR 800 million and EUR 1.4 billion. By 2020, this was upgraded to between EUR 1.9 billion and EUR 2.4 billion. However, the latest projections are in the range EUR 4.6 billion to EUR 6 billion, with the possibility that it could run as high as EUR 10 billion, in a worse case scenario. Even at that, Dublin won't see the first litre of water from the Shannon before 2030, if indeed the project ever goes ahead.

The National Children's Hospital will be one of the most expensive hospitals in the world, costing EUR 2.2 billion at least, without taking into account a large number of disputed claims, yet to be decided. It was first proposed in 1993 and it is still unclear when exactly it will open, so, way over budget and behind on delivery. Large numbers of design changes during works were blamed by builders for the delay, but it took so long to construct, that children's medicine and so the requirements, had changed in the meantime.

The tragedy is that we were once able to manage these projects. Building work started on Tallaght University Hospital in 1993 and it opened on time in 1998 within budget. Somehow, in the meantime, we have lost the skill-set needed to achieve this.

Based on the most recent Slaintcare Progress Report, given all the hoops the elective hospital projects still have to jump through, I seriously doubt if construction will start before 2030 and expect that the final cost will dwarf the initial estimate.

Furthermore, if policy changes elsewhere take a huge bite out of Irish tax receipts from the activities of the multinational sector here, as could happen in the years ahead, then, at this rate, the elective hospitals may never be built.

Here's what I would do to fix this problem:

1. Scrap the remaining stages of the Government's Infrastructure Guidelines for the elective hospitals. Government approval, in principle, has already been given to the project. I understand the need for these guidelines in general but the bigger risk here is that these long overdue and much needed hospitals, if delayed further, will never be built. Final cabinet sign-off required before the construction contract is placed.

2. Build each hospital in phases and equip, staff and open each hospital once the building work finishes on phase one. Use modular construction as far as possible.

3. Skip the design phase by buying in the design of a world-leading elective hospital and simply use that, for example, the Wyvern Hospital in Sydney Australia. Building work commenced on Wyvern in March 2022 and phase 1 opened for service in December 2024. Total time taken to build, equip, staff and open the hospital was 2 years and 9 months. It cost less than EUR 60 million and includes 85 beds, 8 operating theatres with 150 staff. Further phases to follow.

4. No design changes permitted after construction begins.

5. I would start with the Dublin Elective but only because if we locate it at Connolly Hospital in Blanchardstown (one of the Dublin options), we get access to a large green field site which will speed up construction. Quickly move on to Galway and Cork hospitals.

6. Work on Manpower Planning, IT system and Procurement to run in parallel with construction.

7. Quarterly project meeting to be chaired by Minister of State. Ex officio members to include Dept and HSE nominees, RIAI president (or nominee), EI president (or nominee) and SCSI president (or nominee).

8. Target to commence construction January 2026. First Hospital opens December 2028. All three up and running before the next General Election in November 2029.

Blog 20_ In the Mews

"I think your Housing plans are brillant", writes one person but adds that studio apartments won't suit him; he needs something bigger for his family. "Do you have any other ideas that might help people in my situation"?

Building studio apartments will indirectly help everyone who wants to purchase a home. It will reduce the competition for homes built under the Housing For All (HFA) plan. Those for whom a studio apartment, close to all services and facilities, is adequate eg a single person, two people or even two people and a child will no longer be in the market for a home.

The key thing is not to suggest anything that would interfere with HFA. That plan has to do the state's heavy lifting for a wide variety of homes including social homes, cost rental, affordable purchase, first home scheme etc.

There is one area where I could suggest a new policy and that relates to mews houses. A mews house, or a converted mews, is a house built at the end of the garden of a main residence which opens out onto a laneway, often a quite large laneway. Sometimes this would be on the site of an old disused stables or garage, hence "converted mews". These potential mews homes would have all the necessary infrastructure close by. Also as individual homes, they are generally built by small local construction firms and would not impact the manpower available to the much larger HFA building companies.

It has been estimated that there is capacity for building up to 12,000 new mews houses in this way in our main cities: Dublin, Cork, Limerick, Galway etc. How to unlock this potential? Some incentives will be required for owners of the main residences.

One suggestion is to create an architectural and structural envelope, say max 2 floors, 3 beds etc. If the design stays inside that envelope, then the building of the mews house should be planning exempt so, no planning permission required. A further incentive for the owner would be to allow a tax credit for capital gains tax, if the mews is sold to an owner occupier.

Of course in this case, there would be no fixed price as the price would be determined by the market. However this could bring an additional 12,000 homes to the market for owner occupiers over the next five years, all within the city boundaries and close to existing services and facilities. Let's do it.

Blog 19_Fire and Fossil Fuel

One correspondent expresses surprise at my opinion that the transition to net zero worldwide could take as long as 100 years (See Blog No 11). To see why I believe that to be true, consider everything we have in this world, and I mean everything:

Every road, every bridge, every factory, every hospital, every school, every stadium, every home and apartment, theatre, cinema, every office block, all of transportation including aviation and shipping, Electricity, piped water and sewage, all of mining, domestic appliances, modern medicine and agriculture, TV and Radio, Publishing, Telecommunications, The Internet and all of IT, everything else you can think of, in fact our entire civilisation, was built on two things: Fire and Fossil Fuel. We need to convert all of the above to net zero energy but it will not be easy or fast.

There is no fire on any other planet in the Solar System and, for that matter, there is no fire on the sun. The earth is the only planet in the Solar System which has fire and every day, billions of fires take place here. Think of all the internal combustion engines for a start. Fire is only possible here, because the oxygen concentration in the athmosphere is in a very narrow range. If it were substantially lower, then open fires would not be possible - a fire once lit would immediately go out. If the concentration were substantially higher, then the whole world could burn.

I have argued elsewhere that the difference between fossil machines and net zero machines is that the net zero machines - electric cars, heat pumps, wind turbines, etc. - are all solids and solids must be mined. I believe the transition will take 100 years because we cannot do all the mining of metals and minerals that would be required to make the net zero machines by 2050 or any time even close to then.

Take one metal everybody is familiar with: copper. Copper will often be found in use for water pipes or for the hot press cylinder in a home. It is important because there is no substitute for copper in the Periodic Table, for the manufacture of the net zero machines. You can't say, "we don't have enough copper, we'll use zinc instead". Copper has the highest conductivity by far, apart from the precious metals. Copper must be used for all the windings in the electric motors of the cars, for the heat pumps, for the wind turbines and even for connecting solar panels.

The situation re copper is that the price is close to historical highs and the present demand can be met. However, to complete the net zero transition, vast amounts of extra copper will be needed. It is unclear if the mining companies are even looking for all the new mines that must be discovered and exploited to supply a forthcoming exponential increase in demand.

We know a lot about mining. It is the world's oldest industry. Humans have been doing it for 50,000 years. The Romans were mining coal in Britain when they were there. From the moment prospecting starts, it can take up to 20 years before the first kg of metal can be produced from a new mine.

The sheer volume of the mining required will, I suspect, slow the completion of the worldwide net zero transition until well into the 22nd century.

Blog 18_ Gas Concerns

"Where do you stand on the construction of a liquified natural gas (LNG) storage facility in Ireland ?", asks one questioner. The first thing to check is how secure our current gas arrangements are and what would happen if our gas supply was interrupted.

Previously, we have been able to rely on our own reserves of gas starting with the Kinsale field following which we had Corrib. Kinsale is finished and Corrib is fast running out and now supplies only about 10% of our needs. Accordingly we rely on imports for about 90% of the gas we use. This gas is supplied via two undersea pipelines from Moffat in Scotland and originates in Norweigan or UK North Sea gas fields, so we are at the end of a long pipeline from the source of the gas.

Damage to undersea pipelines (and indeed cables) has occurred in European waters over the past few years, caused either accidently or deliberately. Even if it is unlikely that it could happen to our Irish Sea pipelines or indeed to those supplying us from the North sea, nevertheless it is a risk. That risk is made more serious by the fact that, if it did occur, because of the undersea location of the fault, it could take many weeks if not months to repair.

About half of gas is supplied by Gas Networks Ireland to Industry/domestic customers here and the other half goes to the generation of electricity. To quantify the impact on electricity we can take a look at the very informative Dashboard on the Eirgrid website. Currently the fuel mix generating our electricity is as follows: Gas (60.80%), Renewables (14.86%), Imports via our UK electricity Interconnectors (13.72%), Coal (7.27%) and other (3.35%). So a risk to our gas supplies is also a serious risk to the electricity network.

If damage to our pipelines occurs, then what reserve in Ireland do we have to call on, apart from the 10% supplied by Corrib? I asked someone who should know this and he said about 48 hours! So then, in 48 hours, the lights will go off, no heat, no cooking. industry will collapse. It would be economic armageddon. I presume the 48 hours was an exaggeration but it surely indicates that we would have limited time to find a remedy.

In 2023, the Department of the Environment, Climate and Communications, published an Energy Security in Ireland to 2030 Report. It concluded that Ireland needed a state controlled Floating Storage Regasification Unit (FSRU). This is a ship that can store LNG at high density and is temporarily docked at a port where a connection to the Gas network is available. In the event of undersea pipeline disruption, it can supply gas as required until the emergency ends. If in due course, we develop a sufficiently large local biogas or green hydrogen supply then the FSRU ship can be disconnected as no longer needed.

Given the severe consequences of pipeline disruption, I support the provision of an FSRU as soon as possible.

Blog 17_ Rent Freeze

Would I support a Rent freeze, someone asks? I would certainly like to see rents stabilise but I am worried whether or not a rent freeze would work right now. Maybe we can achieve the same effect in another way.

Landlord representatives claim a rent freeze would drive more smaller landlords out of the market thus reducing supply and making matters worse. Others dispute this, but it is generally held that a rent freeze is good for tenants in situ but very bad for those looking for a place to rent.

Landlords see the issue of tenant rights as a zero sum game. Whenever new rights are proposed for tenants, landlords claim the net effect will be to subtract rights from them.

According to the Daft.ie Rental Price Report Q3 2024, average monthly market rents were as follows:

Dublin EUR 2,476 up 5.2%, Cork City EUR 2,077 up 10.4%, Limerick City EUR 2,221 up 19.2%, Galway City EUR 2,189 up 10.5%, Waterford City EUR 1,659 up 5.8% and Rest Of Ireland EUR 1,586 up 8.3%.

These are the rates for new tenancies and the figures for those remaining in a rented home would have been lower. Even so the figures are stark, particularly for Limerick, which is now on a par with Cork and Galway. Economic growth in Limerick has been strong, but there has been almost no new housing supply, something the new Mayor is determined to rectify.

Professor Lyons of TCD, commenting on the daft report, showed a very interesting correlation for Dublin between numbers of apartments built and rent rises that year. In years when apartment building was low (2018 - 2022), rents rose substantially, but, in years when the number of apartments built was high (around 9,000 in 2023), there was a virtual rent freeze. It looks as though we can take apartments completed in a year as a proxy for private rental properties coming to the market and potentially apply this country wide. To complete the picture: in 2024 apartment building in Dublin fell back and rents have started to rise again.

So it seems we can engineer a natural rent freeze if we build enough apartments. As with house prices, so too with rents, it all comes back to supply. In my Blog post no 4, I have shown how thousands of new "living above the shop" rental properties could be brought to market. This would make a substantial difference but, in the longer term, the Government's Housing for All plan, which has been tilted towards social homes, will need to make provision for more private rental properties as well.

Blog 16_ Food and Trees

Some people want to see Ireland plant more trees and produce less food because trees help to mitigate climate change and agriculture has more to do to reduce emissions. I hope we can plant trees and produce the food.

Forest cover is now back to around 12% of the country, the highest figure since the 16th century, but we are still below the European average.

Personally I love trees and love walking in woodland areas. I'm all in favour of planting more trees. It always strikes me as amazing to realise that the vast bulk of every tree in the world doesn't come out of the ground but is instead sucked out of the air. The wood of a tree is made largely of cellulose and the carbon and most of the oxygen for that comes from the CO2 in the athmosphere.

The deputy secretary general of the United Nations, Amina J. Mohammad speaking recently about Climate Change emphasised how worried she is at the slow progress being made in dealing with it. She listed the now almost inevitable impacts coming our way including:

Extreme Weather Events: Increased frequency and intensity of heatwaves, droughts, and wildfires. More intense storms and hurricanes due to warmer ocean temperatures. Heavier rainfall and increased risk of flooding in some regions. Significant melting of ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica, leading to sea level rise of 0.5 to 1 meter or more. Submersion of low-lying coastal areas.

One impact she particularily mentioned was food production. Countries she said that currently produce some or all of their own food won't be able to in the future and will have to rely on others who still can.

Ireland of course will be subject to some of the same climate impacts as everyone else but our Met Office is predicting dryer, warmer summers with an extended growing season so we will still be able to produce food.

According to Board Bia, Irish food exports feed about 40 million people around the world. In a climate changed future, we could be expected to feed 400 million.

So by all means less us continue to improve forest cover but also position ourselves to respond positively, if the World Food Programme comes calling.

Blog 15_ Housing Plan B

I like your affordable housing proposals says one correspondent, but you'll never get planning permission for that. All those whose views of the sea are impacted plus the usual NIMBY brigade, he suggests, will band together and try to put a stop to it so you better have a Plan B ready

Actually, I am confident that planning permission would be granted because it is in everyone's interest to build a large quantity of affordable homes for sale. We are in the middle of a Housing "disaster" (President Higgin's word) with a whole generation stuck in their family-home bedrooms or paying eye-watering rents and unable to buy a home of their own.

Many local residents who might think of objecting are already living on land reclaimed from the sea in the past . Furthermore, all of them will have adult children/grandchildren (or will have friends/neighbours who have adult children/grandchildren) who would like to buy a home near where they grew up but can't find anything affordable.

The question they have to ask themselves is: do they want their adult children/grandchildren living a hundred kilometres away, where they rarely see them and are unable to offer assistance should a family emergency occur, or, would they put up with a little local inconvenience, and instead have them living nearby where they can see them frequently?

On the other hand, I am an Engineer, so, just in case, I can offer a Plan B but, it will mean going higher and denser. The diameter of the inlet varies along its length from 300m at the Fairview Park end to 900m further out. Plan B would involve reclaiming a strip of land on the industrial/port side but still leaving 250m minimum of Bay area unaffected.

Just a stones throw away on East Wall road, on the banks of the Tolka River, a new development is under construction: the East Wharf scheme. It comprises a mix of a hotel, some retail and commercial plus a large number of apartments (all Build To Rent). The hotel is 15 stories tall which sets a planning precident for the area. By raising each new apartment block to 15 stories and placing them closer together it will still be possible to construct 20,000 studio apartments on the smaller site.

A corollary of this change would be that, while the new apartments will be secured from the impact of future climate induced storm surges and sea rise, there will be no additional protection for the north city generally.

Blog 14_ New Land

Met one NUI graduate at a gathering over the last few days who has been working in Hong Kong for the last five years and was just back with his Hong Kong native wife. He said he was very impressed with my Housing proposals especially going outside the box to use reclaimed land. He mentioned that 25% of all developed land in Hong Kong is reclaimed from the sea, amounting to some 7,000 hectares - my proposal is a lot more modest, at a mere 130 hectares.

He asked why I was suggesting to use the sea area off Fairview for Housing and I explained it was because most of the land in that area is already reclaimed land. Eastwall was reclaimed from the sea in the 19th century and Fairview Park is built on land reclaimed in the 20th century. The port area of Dublin has been continuously extended over the last 100 years by reclaiming land from the sea. Hence it seemed natural to focus on that area because it could be seen as continuing a process that had been going on for centuries; the next step being to reclaim the land stretching out from Fairview Park to the tip of the port.

The conversation moved on to climate change and we both agreed that, at the present slow rate of progress, the global transition to net zero is likely to take up to 100 years and consequently it would be prudent to start taking some protective measures now. I explained that that was another reason why I selected the sea off Fairview. It's because that whole area is shown as particularily vulnerable to future flooding due to climate change with the increased frequency of storm surges and the expected sea level rise of 0.5m to 1.0m.

The Housing proposals include the building of a sea wall which will protect the new homes and the whole of the North City. Of course the rest of the Dublin coastline (and later our other cities) would, in due course,also need protection so this would be the first part of a "Cathedral Project" ie one taking several political cycles to complete. He went on to ask how that would all be paid for and I told him about the Government's Infrastucture, Climate and Nature Fund and that I was expecting that a portion of that would be used to complete the wall and reclamation works.

Blog 13_ Energy Storage

"Explain what you mean by Energy Storage and why you think it is a key enabler for increasing levels of zero emissions Energy on the Grid".

We are facing five years of amber alerts on the Electricity Grid. Fortunately, Eirgrid are confident that interruption to supply is unlikely this winter. We could have been in a much better place if we had provided an adequate level of energy storage over the last number of years and it remains an urgent requirement as the net zero energy available to the Grid increases.

There are two categories of energy storage: short term storage and long term storage. By short term is meant storage for a number of hours say 3/4 hours, whereas long term storage is suitable for 3/4 days or even longer.Typically short term storage is provided by means of batteries which can be charged and then later discharged as required.There are various technology solutions suitable for use as long term storage but the one providing over 90% of storage in the world today is called pumped hydro storage. This is where there is a lake at the bottom of the mountain and a lake at the top. In some modern installations the lower lake is actually the sea. When there is excess energy available it can be diverted to pump water from the lower to the upper lake where it is stored as potential energy. Then later, when supply is tight, the water from the upper lake can roll down again to the lower lake through a turbine to generate electricity.

The present situation in Ireland is that we have a limited amount of battery storage and a single pumped hydro system (Turlough Hill). Two things about the battery storage: Firstly, since we have an all Island electricity system, some storage is in Northern Ireland and some is in the Republic. Without a satisfactory interconnector between the two jurisdictions, the effectiveness of the storage is reduced. Secondly, the battery storage is only partly state owned. Most systems are privately owned and operate on the basis of storage contracts from the Energy Regulator. However representatives of the industry have written media opinion pieces arguing that they would really like to operate differently. Instead of Grid storage contracts, they would like to do what every business does, namely to buy low and sell high. In this case they would be happy to use their technology to buy electricity from the Grid when it is cheap and then sell it back when it is expensive. Consequently, it's not clear how secure even our limited short term energy storage will be when the present contracts end.

I explained in an earlier blog how, as more and more renewable systems are connected to the grid, increasing amounts of the energy generated is wasted, reaching 8.5% in 2022 and probably more now. To eliminate this waste by urgently providing substantial levels of both short term and long term energy storage is long overdue and is now a policy imperative.

For more technical details see:

Engineers Ireland Yearbook 2025, "Why pumped hydroelectric energy storage is a perfect fit for Ireland's path to zero emissions electricity generation" Author: Chris Bakkala CEng MIEI

Blog 12_ Energy Waste

"Can you elaborate on your claim that net zero energy is currently being wasted", asks one voter?

Let's start by saying that electricity, once generated, is a matter of use it or lose it. The Grid can only accept electricity which can be supplied/consumed elsewhere.

There are, for the most part, two forms of electricity generation in Ireland - the fossil generators (mostly gas) and the weather dependent generators (wind and solar). What can happen is that especially, in the early morning, if the wind is blowing strongly and the demand is low, too much electricity is being supplied to the Grid. In response to this situation, the Wind operators are asked to turn off some supply (Note: there are other technical reasons why they they might be asked to reduce supply as well).

You might well ask why don't we turn off some of the state owned fossil generators instead? It turns out that we can't do that because those generating stations were designed for continuous use and can't just be turned off or on at the flick of a switch. If they were turned off and needed to be turned on again (if the wind dropped, say) then it could take several hours before they would be able to supply power to the Grid again.

So the wind operators are told to switch off and, from this year on, they get paid for this electricity which they don't supply ("constraint" payments). Guess who pays for this wasted electricity? The consumer pays. It is one of the elements contributing to our electricity bills.

There's potentially even worse to come. The wind operators have taken a court action against the Energy Regulator (CRU)'s decision not to allow them retrospective payments for constraints in previous years. If they win that case, a further hike in all electricity bills is likely.

In 2022, almost 8.5% of electrical energy from wind went to waste which amounted to 1,279 GWh. Let's for convenience call that 1,279 units. Now, you may have noticed numerous Opinion pieces in the media recently asserting that we can't connect any more Data centres to the Grid because it would result in the emission of additional CO2 into the athmosphere but - is this actually true?

Taking the average annual Data center consumption of electricity as 50 units, it rather looks as though, in theory at least , if instead of wasting electricity as above, another 20 or so data centre equivalents could in fact be connected, without the emission of a single extra molecule of CO2! An added bonus would be a reduction in all electricity bills.

Note: All Data center or other large user Grid connections must of course be prior approved by Eirgrid as to where, when, how, etc.)

Blog 11_ Climate

Climate change is the existential issue of our time. The signs are not encouraging. Addressing the G20 meeting in Rio de Janeiro last year, The President of Cop29 in Baku reminded them that they account for 80% of the world's emissions. Worryingly, none of the G20 countries are on target to meet the reductions required by the Paris 2030 accords.

We can break down the G20 further and say that 6-10 countries essentially control the future of the world's climate: China, India, Russia plus a few others.

While Ireland agonises over the closure of its one coal-fired power station (Moneypoint), China and India operate between them currently over 1,500 and are busy installing one new one each week (over 80% of the world's coal is now burned in Asia).

Adding to the problem is that the use of energy in the world is increasing rapidly. According to the IEA (International Energy Agency) the total energy used in the world increased by 50% between 2002 and 2022 and they predict a further 50% increase between now and 2050.

It no longer sounds unreasonable to suggest that, at the present rate of progress, the Net zero transition worldwide could take up to 100 years with all that that entails. The Climate scientists have made clear what will happen: more extreme weather events, including the likelihood of much heavier rainfall here in winter, exacerbated by rising sea levels. Ireland will need to get very good at flood protection and soon.

Blog 10_Values

I’ve been receiving emails asking me for my position on the “hot button” issues facing society, from transgenderism, through assisted suicide, conscientious objection, to hate speech legislation and abortion.

For many correspondents the issue they mention is a “key decider” for them. They want to know where I stand, because my answer on that one issue will decide their vote, they tell me. Some say they are very happy with my other policies and proposals, but cannot vote for me without knowing my position on that one issue.

On both sides of the debate on such topics, there are often great depths of feeling. Each side considers itself acting with the best intentions, for the greater good of the individual and of society. Therefore each side often feels that views that disagree with theirs are deplorable.

The fact that such issues have dominated my e-mails is a further pointer to the depth of feelings on them.

While the concerns are many, and distinctions can be made, I believe life is better than death; that, except in extraordinarily-rare cases, a human is born male or female; that a person should not be forced to act against their deepest convictions and that it is unhealthy for democracy if governments impose inappropriate restrictions on holding and expressing opinions.

General principles such as these would shape the stance I would take on particular proposals coming before the Seanad.

Blog 9_ Facts

Misinformation is false or inaccurate information- getting the facts wrong. Disinformation is false information which is deliberately intended to mislead - intentionally misstating the facts.

The spread of misinfomation and disinformation, particularly via social media, has affected societies' ability to improve public health, address climate change, maintain stable democracies and more. The advent of online AI (Artificial Intelligence) could magnify the problem. How do we equip our children, in the 21st century, to resist these deformations of reality?

Maybe we need to take a step back in order to take a leap forward? In the medieval scheme of education, the syllabus was divided into two parts: the Trivium and the Quadrivium. Focussing on the Trivium, it in turn consisted of three parts namely: Grammar, Dialectic and Rhetoric. Grammar meant learning a language. Under Dialectic, pupils learnt how to use language, how to construct an argument and importantly, how to detect fallacies in argument. Rhetoric taught pupils to express themselves in language, how to say what they had to say eloquently and persuasively. Use of eloquence to make the worse appear the better reason would be restrained by the previous teaching in Dialectic.

Dialectic and Rhetoric: these are the tools of learning that pupils at an impressionable age need, in order to resist the malign influencers of our social media driven age. Let's add them to the Transition year curriculum in our secondary schools!

Blog 8_ Data centres

There are just over 120 Data centres in Ireland currently connected to the Electricity Grid and they use around 21% of all electricity generated. By comparison, residential customers use 28%. The other 51% is made up of non-residential and heavy power users (excluding data centres). The 28% figure is not out of line with other European countries like Germany, Spain, Italy and France where residential use is between 25 - 30% also. There is currently a Data centre connection moratorium in place for the Dublin region because the electricity grid there requires improvement works before resuming connections.

Many of the newer Data centres are used to provide web services and these can actually save the country electricity, as we would otherwise be using far more. To see how, consider an SME making widgets. One day the Sales Manager comes to the CEO and says he's been talking to the existing customers and some prospective customers and if the company could supply a different type of widget then sales would increase significantly. A business plan is produced which confirms a large improvement in Sales but extensive revisions to machine software will be required and it will take 6-9 months effort by the IT team to produce and test the new software before applying it to the production machines.

The CEO now has a choice. One option is to purchase/lease the PCs, servers, disks, processing power, switches, routers and a wide range of development and testing software that will be required, then connect it all together, power it up and install the software. This will result in a large increase in the use of electricity by the SME.

The other and lower cost option is to rent facilities from, for example, Amazon Web Services (AWS) - Google, IBM etc offer similar services. In the AWS Data Centres, all of the Hardware and Software is virtualised and may be used flexibly over the Internet by a large number of customers at the same time. There will be times when the IT team requires increased processing power or at other times increased disk space and all of this can be accommodated in the AWS rental contract. The power usage of the AWS Data centre is shared by hundreds of SMEs simultaneously, with all using far less electricity than would otherwise be the case. This is good business for Amazon also. In the 2nd quarter of 2024, AWS accounted for more than 60% of Amazon's overall operating profit!

Blog 7_ Arts Block

According to my Housing proposals up to 50,000 people could be living on "Clontarf Island" in five years time. A questioner asks: what will they do for entertainment?

First off, they will all live within a short Dart/Bus/Drive/Taxi/Bike ride (or even walk)from the City center and all its attractions. Secondly, the ground floor of many of the residential blocks will need to contain lots of retail establishments eg shops, cafes, creches, pharmacies , restaurants, Hair salons, wine bars etc.,etc.

However the questioner might be referring to a bigger issue. Dublin City has plenty of large and medium sized venues to accommodate the established acts but fewer and fewer smaller spaces for artists to perform.

The proposed density of the reclaimed site is far less than elsewhere in the city so there would be plenty of scope to construct an Arts Block: think 100m of low rise (2-3 stories) reconfigurable space, rentable at very low cost and suitable for a wide range of artistic activities: Poetry readings, Book clubs, Painting or Photographic exhibitions, String quartets, Amateur dramatics, Bands starting out, Stand-up comedians, etc.,etc. With 50,000 potential customers living nearby and an Events website selling tickets , it should be possible to attract 50-100 attendees to almost any event. Good for the residents and good for the artists.

Blog 6_ Carbon Taxes

During the recent General Election campaign, some parties argued for a continuation of carbon taxes, some to freeze them and some to abolish them.

The case for taxes argued that, due to the existential threat from Climate Change, we needed to reduce our emissions particularily from transport and that we could ring fence that money to assist with energy upgrades. The case against counter argued that taxes to date had in fact not reduced emissions at all and that they were little more than an unavoidable cost of living imposition on those who had no public transport alternative and needed to drive for work, school, healthcare, shopping etc.

There is an argument that, at least on a world wide basis, while we will need carbon taxes in the future, applying them now, paradoxically, could impede the net zero transition we all want to see.

The argument starts from a comparison between a fossil machine and a net zero machine, for example, a fossil car and an electric car. The fossil car relies for its energy on liquid or gas from a well proven 100 year old supply chain and can be made with relatively few metals and minerals. The electric car, by comparison, uses a much greater range of metals and minerals and relies on solids for its energy. The key thing here is that all of these solids have to be mined and vast amounts of new mining will be needed for the transition to net zero.

Almost all of mining today takes place largely in the 2nd/3rd world and with fossil machinery, all transport from the mines is by fossil powered trucks, trains, and ships and all refining and downstream forming, working, shaping etc., uses fossil fuels. So the supply chain today from mine to factory relies heavily on fossil fuels. If carbon taxes are leavied now then the extra costs will have to be passed on which will impede the net zero transition.

Blog 5_ Immigration

One voter commenting on my Immigration proposal asked where I expect the International Protection applicants to go during the 18 month moratorium I have suggested.

First let's quantify the problem. In 2023 there were 13,000 applicants and in 2024 this increased to 21,000, a more than 50% increase. No one expects the 2025 figure to be lower.

The Garda National Immigration Bureau believe that the vast majority of applicants are economic migrants, many of whom are brought here by organised crime groups involved in people smuggling for profit.

Despite the extra resources recently applied to the problem and an accellerated procedure introduced for certain countries of origin, with so many arrivals and few deportations, the backlog grows. It can take up to a year for a first interview in many cases and a further year if there is an appeal, during which more and more applicant accommodation is required. We need a pause of some kind or the situation will become unmanageable with more Coolocks, and more Newtownmountkennedys etc.

Nobody comes here directly from an unsafe country. Since the introduction of Garda checks at the steps of arriving airplanes and the clamp downs at airports abroad, together with changing some visa arrangements, many applicants now arrive here via the UK/NI border in contravention of the Common Travel Area regulations.

So the answer is that, during a moratorium here, I expect that the applicants will simply stay in the UK for longer (Indeed some coming here now already return to the UK when they are only offered tented accommodation). Of course, they will resume coming thereafter but, by then, we should have caught up and be able to process their applications in a fair and timely manner.